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NFL Week 2 Gambling Bonanza

Hey Shakira, how did my gambling picks go last week?

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You’re goddamn right I went 4-0 in my first installment of the NFL Gambling Bonanza. To recap:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5) WIN 

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) WIN 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints OVER 49.5 WIN

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-2.5) WIN

For the Browns, a tie is a tie is a win. The Bills are baddddd and I will continue to bet against them until they prove to be a competent team. Both the Bucs and Saints scored 40+ points each in an offensive explosion. The Broncos held off a stingy Seahawks team in the game that made me sweat the most.

In DraftKings, I tripled up in the Millionaire Maker Contest with one of my highest scoring weeks ever. Granted, my picks were all pretty chalky with only Danny Amendola being owned at under 10%.

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But the past is the past. Survive and advance. Now that I’ve hopefully earned your business, come ride with me.

Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have gotten hit by the injury bug HARD and I think that they are ill-equipped to fill so many voids in just one week. The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal for the season last week and LB Deion Jones is on IR with a foot injury, leaving a massive void in the middle of the field. They also will be down their starting RB and backup C/6th lineman.

Tevin Coleman ($5,300) is in position to carry the workload in this high-powered offense but has a tough matchup against a ferocious and healthy Panthers front 7. The best way to attack the Panthers is through the air, and luckily for the Falcons, Julio Jones ($8,400) is essentially un-guardable despite Matt Ryan’s ($5,700) recent shortcomings.

The Falcons will be able to move the ball but I think that the barrage of injuries will be too much to overcome in just 10 days. The bottom of the roster will be inexperienced and will likely make a costly mistake late in the game to either allow the Panthers to win or at least cover 6 points.

The Panthers of course lost star TE Greg Olsen last week, and they will be without two other back-end receivers as well. Cam Newton ($6,600) will have to make plays on his own and rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey ($7,000) and Devin Funchess ($4,700) to get open against numerous backups on the Falcons. I think McCaffrey explodes this week and Devin Funchess makes the most of his 6’4″ 225lb frame in a hybrid H-back/TE role right in the middle of the field.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans

I want absolutely nothing to do with with situation in Tennessee. I think Marcus Mariota is much more injured than Mike Vrabel is letting on and I wouldn’t be surprised if Blaine Gabbert takes the majority of the snaps this week.

The Texans held Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to 27 points last week and almost tied it up at the end of the game despite some very bad play on both sides of the ball. The Patriots were able to contain DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) last week and Deshaun Watson ($6,300) struggled to find other pass catching options against a very beatable secondary. The Titans are also very beatable through the air and guess who’s back for Houston…

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At the surface, Will Fuller ($5,300) is a “big fuckin’ whoop” type of player. But in this offense, he’s a speedy downfield threat that opens everything else up. I expect Deshaun Watson to bounce back from an underwhelming Week 1 to take over this game.

On top of Mariota’s injury, the Titans will be without BOTH starting Tackles, and TE Delanie Walker.

Who’s hungry?

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)

The Browns forced 6 turnovers last week and came away with a tie. That speaks volumes about this team, whether it be the coaching staff or the on-field talent. Their offense is built for Baker Mayfield, yet they have Tyrod Taylor at the helm. Taylor is all about minimal risk and protecting the football, but that conservative style of football only works with Jalen Hurts at Alabama.

The Saints got embarrassed by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and I bet they come out of the gates hot this week. A fire has been lit under their ass and their offense will hold nothing back. Alvin Kamara ($9,500) will be up against a Browns defense that just allowed James Conner to tally 192 yards from scrimmage. The Saints score a million points at home and the Browns are going to get left behind in the dust.

The Saints got beat deep last week by Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. The Browns don’t really have that kind of vertical threat. Josh Gordon ($5,800) is probably their best downfield option, but he hasn’t been fully integrated into the offense yet. The dinks and dunks to Jarvis Landry ($6,300) and David Njoku ($3,000) will accumulate fantasy points, but not a lot of real life points. I love the Saints here in a bounce back spot.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Waiting all day for Sunday Night.

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BRING BACK THE OLD SNF SONG!

New York Giants. Dallas Cowboys. Carrie Underwood. Sunday Night. These stars align at least once a year. Neither team is particularly good but I do believe that the Giants have a leg up over the Cowboys.

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It boils down to the pass catchers. The Cowboys could not move the ball through the air against a weak Panthers secondary. The Giants are probably a top-10 secondary led by Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins. They’ll be up against the likes of Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup and Tavon Austin. Also, are we sure Dak Prescott is even good? I have my doubts. Losing C Travis Frederick seems catastrophic for the Cowboys as Ezekiel Elliott ($7,600) was bottled up all last week.

The Giants of course have liabilities on the right side of their offensive line and they’ll be tasked with handling DeMarcus Lawrence this week. That means that the Giants will continue their quick hit offense and luckily for them, a totally healthy Odell Beckham Jr ($8,500) is the best slant catcher in the game. The Cowboys secondary continues to be an issue and despite Eli Manning’s limited ability, OBJ, Sterling Shepherd, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley are big enough playmakers to handle Dallas. Hopefully the Giants have a different Punt Returner this week.

 

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There are my 4 picks. I’m on fire, you can’t stop this train. You’re doing yourself a disservice by not taking these picks. Now onto the Survivor Pool.

I took the Baltimore Ravens last week in my Survivor Pool and they trounced the Bills. Nearly half of my pool took the Saints.  This week, the LA Rams are the biggest favorites at -13 against the Cardinals. Then it’s the Saints -9.5 against the Browns, the Chargers -7.5 against the Bills, and the Broncos -6.5 against the Raiders. All four of those picks have their pros and cons. The Rams are the safest bet, but having them on the board later in the season would be very clutch. The Saints just murdered half of America last week. The Chargers are traveling across the country to play in the dreaded 1 PM EST time slot. The Broncos are still led by the streaky Case Keenum.

Safe Picks:

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. New Orleans Saints

Risky Picks:

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Denver Broncos

My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

 

Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

START:

  • Any and every Kansas City Chief and Pittsburgh Steeler. This is the Antonio Brown explosion spot and who better to go shot for shot with him than Tyreek Hill?
  • Business Fridays. Casual Fridays are so out-dated. We stunt on Business Fridays now:dner0b1x0aaoenr.jpg
  • Using a soft tortilla as a plate while eating hard tacos. All the spillage then becomes the final taco.
  • Birds. Not the Eagles, Falcons, Ravens, Cardinals, or Seahawks. Brogan will show you what I mean:

  • Any receiver going up against Richard Sherman. Shoutout Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay.
  • THIS REF:

 

SIT:

  • James Conner’s barber. Business in the front, an accidental sneeze in the middle, Mike Gundy in the back:
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  • The ESPN exec that aired Marshawn Lynch’s high school photo. He may be dead.

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  • Matt Patricia. It has become known that he keeps a pencil behind his ear despite having a laminated play sheet. I think he should focus on the lead in the game not the lead in the pencil.
  • Any Buffalo Bill. They suuuuuuck!

 

 

Week 2 baby. I Love It.

NFL Week 10 Picks

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Deliberation, cogitation, rumination. Three words that I looked up that mean thinking deeply about something. Which is exactly what I didn’t do last weekend. I checked out the NFL, NCAAF, and Breeder’s Cup lines and went with the ole gut. And the ole gut did not disappoint. Now it’s time to go back to back like the cover of Lethal Weapon. Or like Jordan ’96-’97.

Continue reading “NFL Week 10 Picks”

NFL Week 5 Picks

Welcome back to everybody’s favorite (semi) weekly gambling post. If you were missing me last week, it’s because I gave myself a 1 week ban for my subpar Week 3 performance. I went 1-3, bringing my season total to 8-8. But let’s not tread on the past. Here’s what I like for Week 5:

Continue reading “NFL Week 5 Picks”

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