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NFL Week 3 Gambling Bonanza

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I didn’t gloat two weeks ago when I went 4-0, because I knew that I could come crashing back to Earth at any moment. Last week was my Armageddon asteroid week. 0-4. Zero and Four. I’m now 4-4 on the year.

Hand up, I fucked up. I took the Panthers, Texans, Saints, and Giants, THEY’RE NOT BAD! I don’t know what else I can say. If you want me to say I fucked up, I fucked up. Write it.

Except don’t write it. I’ll write it. Last week went as follows:

Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons LOSS

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans LOSS

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5) LOSS

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys LOSS

Howeva, I made some scratch back again in DraftKings. I tripled up again led by Patrick Mahomes. I paid up for Antonio Brown, which ended up being a bad deal. Luckily, Zach Ertz and Chris Godwin were both barely owned and combined for 37 points. Hot tip for the future – start whichever RB is up against the Bills.

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Alright, it’s a make or break week but I really do like these picks:

Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Philadelphia Eagles

The triumphant Son and Lord and Savior of Philadelphia is returning this week to an Eagles team that is completely barren at the skills positions.

Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace are all out this week. Alshon Jeffery is listed as questionable but he hasn’t even been cleared for contact yet. 3rd string RB Corey Clement ($4,300) injured his quad at practice Friday. That means that Wendell Smallwood ($3,000) may be thrust into a starting role on Sunday. Not the ideal backfield situation for an Eagles team that probably wants to minimize Carson Wentz’s risks in his first week back from his ACL injury.

Andrew Luck ($5,600) is in a great spot against an Eagles secondary that allows over 300 yards per game through the air. TY Hilton ($6,700) has scored a TD in consecutive games and it looks like he’ll be a matchup nightmare on Sunday. Eric Ebron ($3,400) has developed a rapport with Andrew Luck as he has scored in consecutive weeks as well.

I don’t necessarily think that the Colts will spoil Carson Wentz’s homecoming but I do believe that the game will be decided by a field goal or less.

Denver Broncos (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

I don’t understand how the Ravens are the favorite in this game. I think they’re being given the benefit of the doubt after their dismantling of the Bills in Week 1. They looked pretty bad at times against the Bengals last week, especially in the secondary. Case Keenum is an absolute wildcard at QB for the Broncos, but Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400) has been a monster this season ever since being moved to the slot. He has become a matchup nightmare, and if the Ravens spotlight him, Demaryius Thomas ($5,200) can still advance the ball outside (if he catches it).

The Broncos secondary isn’t what it once was but they still have Chris Harris Jr at corner. He’ll most likely be on Michael Crabtree, and don’t be surprised if some chain-snatching goes on. There’s a lot of bad blood between those two, it just gets overshadowed by how Aqib Talib would always go above and beyond.

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Joe Flacco throws a ton of 50/50 balls downfield that often result in pass-interference calls. John Brown ($4,800) has emerged as Flacco’s favorite deep threat. He’s as healthy as ever and as shifty as ever, but if the Broncos can manage to contain him, Von Miller and the Denver front 7 will be able to handle the rest.

New York Giants @ Houston Texans (-6)

Believe it or not, the Giants will miss Eli Apple this week.

The Giants got torched by Tavon Austin last week. TAVON AUSTIN. Will Fuller ($5,900) is in a huge spot against an injured and beatable Giants secondary. Deshaun Watson ($6,100) looked better last week despite showing negative awareness on the last play of the game:

This is a huge bounce back spot for the Texans after their embarrassing loss in Tennessee to former coach Mike Vrabel and backup QB Blaine Gabbert. The right side (honestly the entire line) of the Giants offensive line is horrendous and the Texans are finally healthy across the board. I said JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney would eat last week, but now I reallllllly mean it.

New England Patriots (-6.5) @ Detroit Lions

Both the Patriots and the Lions have the stench of Matt Patricia on their teams which means that defense doesn’t exist. The Patriots will try to stick it to Patricia for leaving, and Patricia will try to stick it to the Pats for talking all that shit about his defense.

I don’t expect a whole lot out of Josh Gordon this week (or in general) but his presence alone will require the Lions to spend valuable time preparing for what he’s capable of.

Bill Belichick is 14-8 against former assistants and you won’t catch me dead betting against him after a loss to Jacksonville last week.

The Lions give up 39 points per game and the Patriots give up 25. The stars are aligning for a shootout on Sunday Night Football. I think coaching prevails.

That’s it. Don’t throw your money away, come ride with me.

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Onto the Survivor Pool. I took the Chargers last week who coasted to an 11-point victory against the Bills. Keep attacking the Bills. They’re all either getting hurt or retiring. This week, the Minnesota Vikings are -16.5 against the Bills. Don’t overthink it, pick the Vikings in your pool. Next are the Jaguars -9.5 against the Titans, Rams -7 against the Chargers, Patriots -7 against the Bills, and Eagles -7 against the Colts. I tend to avoid divisional matchups so I’d be hesitant to pick the Jags against the Titans..

Safe Picks:

  1. Minnesota Vikings
  2. New England Patriots
  3. Los Angeles Rams

Risky Picks:

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Chicago Bears
  3. Houston Texans

My Pick: Minnesota Vikings

 

Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em

START:

  • Quitting while you’re ahead >>>>>>. When the going gets tough, just go. Vontae the Gawd. NFL: AUG 30 Preseason - Bills at Bears
  • Watching Oregon’s Justin Herbert if your team sucks (Giants). 6’6″ and can do it all with both his arm and his legs. maxresdefault
  • Troy Aikman in your Clap Back league:

  • Kickers. It’s a huge bounce back week for kickers. They can’t really go anywhere but up from last week.
  • Latavius Murray. He’s filling in for Dalvin Cook against the Bills. 700 yards 5 TDs coming at you live.

 

SIT:

  • Josh Gordon – Randy Moss comparisons. That ain’t it, Chief.
  • Cleveland. All of Cleveland. Quarantine that city. From eating horse shit off the streets to catching rodents in their stadiums, Cleveland needs to sit one out.

  • Tourism in Buffalo. Jordan Matthews is lucky he’s out of Buffalo before he fielded his own Matthews starting 5 out of sheer boredom.

 

 

There you have it. It’s officially Fall so Football is back back. Extra back. Now let me listen to Kenny in this dusty room.

NFL Week 2 Gambling Bonanza

Hey Shakira, how did my gambling picks go last week?

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You’re goddamn right I went 4-0 in my first installment of the NFL Gambling Bonanza. To recap:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5) WIN 

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) WIN 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints OVER 49.5 WIN

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-2.5) WIN

For the Browns, a tie is a tie is a win. The Bills are baddddd and I will continue to bet against them until they prove to be a competent team. Both the Bucs and Saints scored 40+ points each in an offensive explosion. The Broncos held off a stingy Seahawks team in the game that made me sweat the most.

In DraftKings, I tripled up in the Millionaire Maker Contest with one of my highest scoring weeks ever. Granted, my picks were all pretty chalky with only Danny Amendola being owned at under 10%.

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But the past is the past. Survive and advance. Now that I’ve hopefully earned your business, come ride with me.

Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have gotten hit by the injury bug HARD and I think that they are ill-equipped to fill so many voids in just one week. The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal for the season last week and LB Deion Jones is on IR with a foot injury, leaving a massive void in the middle of the field. They also will be down their starting RB and backup C/6th lineman.

Tevin Coleman ($5,300) is in position to carry the workload in this high-powered offense but has a tough matchup against a ferocious and healthy Panthers front 7. The best way to attack the Panthers is through the air, and luckily for the Falcons, Julio Jones ($8,400) is essentially un-guardable despite Matt Ryan’s ($5,700) recent shortcomings.

The Falcons will be able to move the ball but I think that the barrage of injuries will be too much to overcome in just 10 days. The bottom of the roster will be inexperienced and will likely make a costly mistake late in the game to either allow the Panthers to win or at least cover 6 points.

The Panthers of course lost star TE Greg Olsen last week, and they will be without two other back-end receivers as well. Cam Newton ($6,600) will have to make plays on his own and rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey ($7,000) and Devin Funchess ($4,700) to get open against numerous backups on the Falcons. I think McCaffrey explodes this week and Devin Funchess makes the most of his 6’4″ 225lb frame in a hybrid H-back/TE role right in the middle of the field.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans

I want absolutely nothing to do with with situation in Tennessee. I think Marcus Mariota is much more injured than Mike Vrabel is letting on and I wouldn’t be surprised if Blaine Gabbert takes the majority of the snaps this week.

The Texans held Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to 27 points last week and almost tied it up at the end of the game despite some very bad play on both sides of the ball. The Patriots were able to contain DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) last week and Deshaun Watson ($6,300) struggled to find other pass catching options against a very beatable secondary. The Titans are also very beatable through the air and guess who’s back for Houston…

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At the surface, Will Fuller ($5,300) is a “big fuckin’ whoop” type of player. But in this offense, he’s a speedy downfield threat that opens everything else up. I expect Deshaun Watson to bounce back from an underwhelming Week 1 to take over this game.

On top of Mariota’s injury, the Titans will be without BOTH starting Tackles, and TE Delanie Walker.

Who’s hungry?

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)

The Browns forced 6 turnovers last week and came away with a tie. That speaks volumes about this team, whether it be the coaching staff or the on-field talent. Their offense is built for Baker Mayfield, yet they have Tyrod Taylor at the helm. Taylor is all about minimal risk and protecting the football, but that conservative style of football only works with Jalen Hurts at Alabama.

The Saints got embarrassed by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and I bet they come out of the gates hot this week. A fire has been lit under their ass and their offense will hold nothing back. Alvin Kamara ($9,500) will be up against a Browns defense that just allowed James Conner to tally 192 yards from scrimmage. The Saints score a million points at home and the Browns are going to get left behind in the dust.

The Saints got beat deep last week by Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. The Browns don’t really have that kind of vertical threat. Josh Gordon ($5,800) is probably their best downfield option, but he hasn’t been fully integrated into the offense yet. The dinks and dunks to Jarvis Landry ($6,300) and David Njoku ($3,000) will accumulate fantasy points, but not a lot of real life points. I love the Saints here in a bounce back spot.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Waiting all day for Sunday Night.

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BRING BACK THE OLD SNF SONG!

New York Giants. Dallas Cowboys. Carrie Underwood. Sunday Night. These stars align at least once a year. Neither team is particularly good but I do believe that the Giants have a leg up over the Cowboys.

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It boils down to the pass catchers. The Cowboys could not move the ball through the air against a weak Panthers secondary. The Giants are probably a top-10 secondary led by Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins. They’ll be up against the likes of Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup and Tavon Austin. Also, are we sure Dak Prescott is even good? I have my doubts. Losing C Travis Frederick seems catastrophic for the Cowboys as Ezekiel Elliott ($7,600) was bottled up all last week.

The Giants of course have liabilities on the right side of their offensive line and they’ll be tasked with handling DeMarcus Lawrence this week. That means that the Giants will continue their quick hit offense and luckily for them, a totally healthy Odell Beckham Jr ($8,500) is the best slant catcher in the game. The Cowboys secondary continues to be an issue and despite Eli Manning’s limited ability, OBJ, Sterling Shepherd, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley are big enough playmakers to handle Dallas. Hopefully the Giants have a different Punt Returner this week.

 

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There are my 4 picks. I’m on fire, you can’t stop this train. You’re doing yourself a disservice by not taking these picks. Now onto the Survivor Pool.

I took the Baltimore Ravens last week in my Survivor Pool and they trounced the Bills. Nearly half of my pool took the Saints.  This week, the LA Rams are the biggest favorites at -13 against the Cardinals. Then it’s the Saints -9.5 against the Browns, the Chargers -7.5 against the Bills, and the Broncos -6.5 against the Raiders. All four of those picks have their pros and cons. The Rams are the safest bet, but having them on the board later in the season would be very clutch. The Saints just murdered half of America last week. The Chargers are traveling across the country to play in the dreaded 1 PM EST time slot. The Broncos are still led by the streaky Case Keenum.

Safe Picks:

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. New Orleans Saints

Risky Picks:

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Denver Broncos

My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

 

Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

START:

  • Any and every Kansas City Chief and Pittsburgh Steeler. This is the Antonio Brown explosion spot and who better to go shot for shot with him than Tyreek Hill?
  • Business Fridays. Casual Fridays are so out-dated. We stunt on Business Fridays now:dner0b1x0aaoenr.jpg
  • Using a soft tortilla as a plate while eating hard tacos. All the spillage then becomes the final taco.
  • Birds. Not the Eagles, Falcons, Ravens, Cardinals, or Seahawks. Brogan will show you what I mean:

  • Any receiver going up against Richard Sherman. Shoutout Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay.
  • THIS REF:

 

SIT:

  • James Conner’s barber. Business in the front, an accidental sneeze in the middle, Mike Gundy in the back:
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  • The ESPN exec that aired Marshawn Lynch’s high school photo. He may be dead.

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  • Matt Patricia. It has become known that he keeps a pencil behind his ear despite having a laminated play sheet. I think he should focus on the lead in the game not the lead in the pencil.
  • Any Buffalo Bill. They suuuuuuck!

 

 

Week 2 baby. I Love It.

NFL Week 5 Picks

Welcome back to everybody’s favorite (semi) weekly gambling post. If you were missing me last week, it’s because I gave myself a 1 week ban for my subpar Week 3 performance. I went 1-3, bringing my season total to 8-8. But let’s not tread on the past. Here’s what I like for Week 5:

Continue reading “NFL Week 5 Picks”

David Johnson, JJ Watt, and I All Have Something in Common

David Johnson made a splash on Wednesday by posting this video of him jumping straight out of a pool.

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Knee showing great progress! 👌🏾

A post shared by David johnson (@davidjohnson31) on

Coming off of a left meniscus injury in week 16, this is a good sign that DJ2K will be back and better than ever for the 2017 NFL season. Johnson was a big game away from becoming only the 3rd player in NFL history to record 1,000+ yards rushing and receiving in one season, joining Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig. Anybody that watched him play at Northern Iowa (probably just me) knew that he was a star in the making and it took the Arizona Cardinals about 10 weeks into his rookie season to finally realize that.

Continue reading “David Johnson, JJ Watt, and I All Have Something in Common”

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