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NFL Week 2 Gambling Bonanza

Hey Shakira, how did my gambling picks go last week?

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You’re goddamn right I went 4-0 in my first installment of the NFL Gambling Bonanza. To recap:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5) WIN 

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) WIN 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints OVER 49.5 WIN

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-2.5) WIN

For the Browns, a tie is a tie is a win. The Bills are baddddd and I will continue to bet against them until they prove to be a competent team. Both the Bucs and Saints scored 40+ points each in an offensive explosion. The Broncos held off a stingy Seahawks team in the game that made me sweat the most.

In DraftKings, I tripled up in the Millionaire Maker Contest with one of my highest scoring weeks ever. Granted, my picks were all pretty chalky with only Danny Amendola being owned at under 10%.

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But the past is the past. Survive and advance. Now that I’ve hopefully earned your business, come ride with me.

Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have gotten hit by the injury bug HARD and I think that they are ill-equipped to fill so many voids in just one week. The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal for the season last week and LB Deion Jones is on IR with a foot injury, leaving a massive void in the middle of the field. They also will be down their starting RB and backup C/6th lineman.

Tevin Coleman ($5,300) is in position to carry the workload in this high-powered offense but has a tough matchup against a ferocious and healthy Panthers front 7. The best way to attack the Panthers is through the air, and luckily for the Falcons, Julio Jones ($8,400) is essentially un-guardable despite Matt Ryan’s ($5,700) recent shortcomings.

The Falcons will be able to move the ball but I think that the barrage of injuries will be too much to overcome in just 10 days. The bottom of the roster will be inexperienced and will likely make a costly mistake late in the game to either allow the Panthers to win or at least cover 6 points.

The Panthers of course lost star TE Greg Olsen last week, and they will be without two other back-end receivers as well. Cam Newton ($6,600) will have to make plays on his own and rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey ($7,000) and Devin Funchess ($4,700) to get open against numerous backups on the Falcons. I think McCaffrey explodes this week and Devin Funchess makes the most of his 6’4″ 225lb frame in a hybrid H-back/TE role right in the middle of the field.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans

I want absolutely nothing to do with with situation in Tennessee. I think Marcus Mariota is much more injured than Mike Vrabel is letting on and I wouldn’t be surprised if Blaine Gabbert takes the majority of the snaps this week.

The Texans held Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to 27 points last week and almost tied it up at the end of the game despite some very bad play on both sides of the ball. The Patriots were able to contain DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) last week and Deshaun Watson ($6,300) struggled to find other pass catching options against a very beatable secondary. The Titans are also very beatable through the air and guess who’s back for Houston…

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At the surface, Will Fuller ($5,300) is a “big fuckin’ whoop” type of player. But in this offense, he’s a speedy downfield threat that opens everything else up. I expect Deshaun Watson to bounce back from an underwhelming Week 1 to take over this game.

On top of Mariota’s injury, the Titans will be without BOTH starting Tackles, and TE Delanie Walker.

Who’s hungry?

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)

The Browns forced 6 turnovers last week and came away with a tie. That speaks volumes about this team, whether it be the coaching staff or the on-field talent. Their offense is built for Baker Mayfield, yet they have Tyrod Taylor at the helm. Taylor is all about minimal risk and protecting the football, but that conservative style of football only works with Jalen Hurts at Alabama.

The Saints got embarrassed by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and I bet they come out of the gates hot this week. A fire has been lit under their ass and their offense will hold nothing back. Alvin Kamara ($9,500) will be up against a Browns defense that just allowed James Conner to tally 192 yards from scrimmage. The Saints score a million points at home and the Browns are going to get left behind in the dust.

The Saints got beat deep last week by Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. The Browns don’t really have that kind of vertical threat. Josh Gordon ($5,800) is probably their best downfield option, but he hasn’t been fully integrated into the offense yet. The dinks and dunks to Jarvis Landry ($6,300) and David Njoku ($3,000) will accumulate fantasy points, but not a lot of real life points. I love the Saints here in a bounce back spot.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Waiting all day for Sunday Night.

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BRING BACK THE OLD SNF SONG!

New York Giants. Dallas Cowboys. Carrie Underwood. Sunday Night. These stars align at least once a year. Neither team is particularly good but I do believe that the Giants have a leg up over the Cowboys.

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It boils down to the pass catchers. The Cowboys could not move the ball through the air against a weak Panthers secondary. The Giants are probably a top-10 secondary led by Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins. They’ll be up against the likes of Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup and Tavon Austin. Also, are we sure Dak Prescott is even good? I have my doubts. Losing C Travis Frederick seems catastrophic for the Cowboys as Ezekiel Elliott ($7,600) was bottled up all last week.

The Giants of course have liabilities on the right side of their offensive line and they’ll be tasked with handling DeMarcus Lawrence this week. That means that the Giants will continue their quick hit offense and luckily for them, a totally healthy Odell Beckham Jr ($8,500) is the best slant catcher in the game. The Cowboys secondary continues to be an issue and despite Eli Manning’s limited ability, OBJ, Sterling Shepherd, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley are big enough playmakers to handle Dallas. Hopefully the Giants have a different Punt Returner this week.

 

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There are my 4 picks. I’m on fire, you can’t stop this train. You’re doing yourself a disservice by not taking these picks. Now onto the Survivor Pool.

I took the Baltimore Ravens last week in my Survivor Pool and they trounced the Bills. Nearly half of my pool took the Saints.  This week, the LA Rams are the biggest favorites at -13 against the Cardinals. Then it’s the Saints -9.5 against the Browns, the Chargers -7.5 against the Bills, and the Broncos -6.5 against the Raiders. All four of those picks have their pros and cons. The Rams are the safest bet, but having them on the board later in the season would be very clutch. The Saints just murdered half of America last week. The Chargers are traveling across the country to play in the dreaded 1 PM EST time slot. The Broncos are still led by the streaky Case Keenum.

Safe Picks:

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. New Orleans Saints

Risky Picks:

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Denver Broncos

My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

 

Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

START:

  • Any and every Kansas City Chief and Pittsburgh Steeler. This is the Antonio Brown explosion spot and who better to go shot for shot with him than Tyreek Hill?
  • Business Fridays. Casual Fridays are so out-dated. We stunt on Business Fridays now:dner0b1x0aaoenr.jpg
  • Using a soft tortilla as a plate while eating hard tacos. All the spillage then becomes the final taco.
  • Birds. Not the Eagles, Falcons, Ravens, Cardinals, or Seahawks. Brogan will show you what I mean:

  • Any receiver going up against Richard Sherman. Shoutout Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay.
  • THIS REF:

 

SIT:

  • James Conner’s barber. Business in the front, an accidental sneeze in the middle, Mike Gundy in the back:
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  • The ESPN exec that aired Marshawn Lynch’s high school photo. He may be dead.

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  • Matt Patricia. It has become known that he keeps a pencil behind his ear despite having a laminated play sheet. I think he should focus on the lead in the game not the lead in the pencil.
  • Any Buffalo Bill. They suuuuuuck!

 

 

Week 2 baby. I Love It.

NFL Week 1 Gambling Bonanza

You know for weeks I’ve been telling guys to not take no for an answer, to keep pushing, to not stop gambling till you get what you want. This deal I’m about to sign, barring me from parlaying, barring me from DraftKings, my bookie… What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you what it is, it’s me being a hypocrite. It’s me taking no for an answer, it’s them selling me, not the other way around! Fuck it, I’m not leaving!

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Admittedly I started to slip on my gambling coverage last year when I was a floundering post-grad scrounging for cash. People thought I was hanging up the gambling and blogging cleats for good. Well I am happy to report that I will be back and better than ever with the brand new GAMBLING BONANZA.

I used to pick 4 NFL games and write a couple thousand words about why I thought that pick was a lock with tweets, GIFs, and rap songs. I finally realized that nobody truly gives a fuck about the fluff and you people just want me to cut to the chase so that you can inevitably fade me and stack dough. So this GAMBLING BONANZA will be different. You’ll get your spreads and my two cents about ’em. You’ll also get Survivor Pool picks ranked on confidence. I’ll sprinkle in some DraftKings/Fantasy plays and fades. I want this to be your one stop shop for all things degenerate gambling.

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Let’s get to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5)

Yes, you read that right. You probably saw Myles Garrett as the cover of this ~article~ and thought I was fucking with you. Well fucking with you I am not. The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently in an internal battle between front office, star running back, offensive line, and head coach. To summarize, 29 year old star RB Le’Veon Bell is holding out and not signing his franchise deal for a myriad of reasons. The entire Steelers offensive line was in the news shitting on him, citing how much more money he makes than them, alluding that he’d be nothing without them. tl;dr 2nd year player and cancer survivor (fucking badass) John Conner ($4,500) will be starting at RB this Sunday.

Conner is a beast and the Steelers have proved that any RB they throw into the backfield will put up numbers (D’Angelo Williams). However, the narrative with Big Ben’s home/road splits exists for a reason. With all the distractions combined with Mother Nature on Sunday, I think that this game will be low scoring and sloppy enough for the Browns to easily cover and possibly even win.

I can admit that I watched Hard Knocks and I am more or less enamored with the Cleveland Browns. Even though they ended up cutting nearly every player I loved, I still think they’re due for a massive turnaround. Their suddenly crowded backfield will be important in this game as they have a couple bruisers in Carlos Hyde ($4,500) and Nick Chubb ($4,100) to compliment pass-catching Duke Johnson ($4,700.) The Steelers haven’t been able to comfortably replace Ryan Shazier which leaves a massive hole up the middle. I also love the revenge narrative from former Steelers coach Todd Haley:

Control the clock, hold onto the ball, run hard, and the Cleveland Browns could win their first game since 2016.

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

7.5 is a shitty spread but the Buffalo Bills are a shitty team. The Ravens defensive front will be way too much to handle against a Bills offensive line that is missing three starters from last season, including Eric Wood and Richie Incognito. That means Bills QB Nathan Peterman will have to make split second decisions against a skilled Ravens secondary led by FS Eric Weddle. Will Nathan Peterman repeat his 5-INT in a half performance from last Thanksgiving against the Chargers? Probably not. Will he struggle against a superior defense with his inadequate weapons (Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones, Jeremy Kerley, Charles Clay)? For sure. LeSean McCoy has an active legal investigation hanging over his head which is just the icing on the cake for a Bills team that is in big trouble.

The Ravens brought in receivers Michael Crabtree ($5,400) and John Brown ($3,700) to compliment Joe Flacco, who is a bad stretch of games away from fans clamoring for Lamar Jackson to start taking snaps. This game could get so ugly that I wouldn’t be surprised if Lamar was the QB to kneel at the end of the game. Alex Collins ($5,600) averaged 4.6 yards per carry last year and should have plenty of opportunities to eclipse 100 yards in the rain Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints OVER 49.5

The Saints might just score 49 on their own against this horrid Tampa Bay team. Jameis Winston is suspended, making Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter against a rising New Orleans defense. Two of the three best corners on Tampa are listed as doubtful as well.

The Saints are going to enter this season angry after being just one play away from the NFC Championship Game. Alvin Kamara ($8,700) is poised to have an enormous game as Mark Ingram is suspended and recently signed Mike Gillislee is the only other RB on the roster. With Grimes and Harris out for Tampa Bay, Michael Thomas ($7,800) and now-healthy Cam Meredith ($4,400) are going to eatttttttt.

Historically, NFC South matchups in New Orleans are shootouts. The only way this game doesn’t hit the over is if the Saints hop out to a quick three score lead and go on autopilot.

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Hate to break it to you Seattle fans, but the Legion of Boom is gone. It’s over. Finished. The Seahawks are a shell of their former selves. The remaining members of the LoB are begging to leave!

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Doug Baldwin ($6,200) is the lone offensive weapon on the Hawks and he’s already banged up:

They haven’t had a decent run game in years and their first round pick, RB Rashaad Penny has been unimpressive in camp. All of these factors poise to be problematic against a Broncos defense that is still very strong despite the absence of Aqib Talib.

Newly acquired QB Case Keenum ($5,100) is the best QB that the Broncos have had on their roster since Peyton Manning’s 2nd season there. Demaryius Thomas ($5,700) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,000) are criminally underrated yet again and will probably both chalk up 1,000+ yards this season. Rookie RB Royce Freeman ($4,500) seems to have won the starting gig and is at the very least a lateral move from CJ Anderson, who was a 1,000 yard rusher last year. The Broncos are quietly a very solid team and they should prove that Sunday afternoon.

 

Those are my 4 picks this week. Join or Die. Now onto the Survivor Pool.

Since it’s Week 1 and nobody really knows how good or bad every team is yet, my advice is to pick a team that you are more confident in. If you don’t know what to think, check out what Vegas thinks. The highest spreads are Saints -9.5 vs. Bucs, Ravens -7.5 vs. Bills, Packers -7 vs. Bears, Lions -6.5 vs. Jets, Vikings -6.5 vs. 49ers. With Khalil Mack leading the new-look Bears D, I wouldn’t pick the Packers. With Sam Darnold at the helm for the Jets against the Lions and Matt Patricia’s coaching debut, there are too many variables to pick Detroit. With Jimmy G’s undefeated record and Kirk Cousins’ Viking debut, I wouldn’t pick Minnesota either. So in my mind it’s either a strong Saints team that I might want in my back pocket for later in the season or an unproven Ravens team against what should be a piss poor Bills team that I plan to attack all season.

Safe Picks

  1. New Orleans Saints
  2. New England Patriots
  3. Baltimore Ravens

Risky Picks

  1. Green Bay Packers
  2. Los Angeles Rams
  3. Denver Broncos
  4. Minnesota Vikings

My Pick: Baltimore Ravens

 

Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

START:

  • The Saints. All of the Saints. Any Saint. Including these ones:

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  • Looking at your favorite team’s schedule so you can plan to do “fall things” with your significant other during their bye week. You can thank me later.
  • DeAndre Hopkins. The Patriots will bend, not break, and Hopkins will take all the yards he can get.
  • RPOs. It’s a copycat league and with the Eagles’ success with the Run/Pass Option last season, be ready for other teams to implement RPOs of their own.
  • Preparing to not know what’s a catch, what’s a personal foul, and where a defensive player is allowed to hit a QB.

SIT:

  • Josh Gordon and Andrew Luck. Both are frontrunners to win Comeback Player of the Year, but neither seems totally ready to rock. I’d rather be a week late than a week early on them.
  • Dez Bryant. Don’t pick him up, either on your fantasy team or your real football team. There’s a reason he’s still a free agent and there’s a reason that the Dallas Cowboys are excited to have Allen Hurns instead of Dez as WR1.
  • Spider 2 Y Banana. With Jon Gruden coaching the Raiders, there won’t be anybody up in the broadcast booth to say S2YB every possession.
  • Sweatpants. Summer is still holding on for dear life so we’ll have to wear shorts in order to properly absorb 12 hours of football on Sunday.
  • On your couch. We finally made it.

 

Football season is here. To quote Big Cat, the entire football sandwich is in front of us. Now let’s make some money.

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