Search

Tag

Allen Hurns

NFL Week 2 Gambling Bonanza

Hey Shakira, how did my gambling picks go last week?

1487170984-290006-1487171188-sumario-grande

You’re goddamn right I went 4-0 in my first installment of the NFL Gambling Bonanza. To recap:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5) WIN 

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) WIN 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints OVER 49.5 WIN

Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos (-2.5) WIN

For the Browns, a tie is a tie is a win. The Bills are baddddd and I will continue to bet against them until they prove to be a competent team. Both the Bucs and Saints scored 40+ points each in an offensive explosion. The Broncos held off a stingy Seahawks team in the game that made me sweat the most.

In DraftKings, I tripled up in the Millionaire Maker Contest with one of my highest scoring weeks ever. Granted, my picks were all pretty chalky with only Danny Amendola being owned at under 10%.

Screen Shot 2018-09-15 at 9.47.24 AM

But the past is the past. Survive and advance. Now that I’ve hopefully earned your business, come ride with me.

Carolina Panthers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have gotten hit by the injury bug HARD and I think that they are ill-equipped to fill so many voids in just one week. The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal for the season last week and LB Deion Jones is on IR with a foot injury, leaving a massive void in the middle of the field. They also will be down their starting RB and backup C/6th lineman.

Tevin Coleman ($5,300) is in position to carry the workload in this high-powered offense but has a tough matchup against a ferocious and healthy Panthers front 7. The best way to attack the Panthers is through the air, and luckily for the Falcons, Julio Jones ($8,400) is essentially un-guardable despite Matt Ryan’s ($5,700) recent shortcomings.

The Falcons will be able to move the ball but I think that the barrage of injuries will be too much to overcome in just 10 days. The bottom of the roster will be inexperienced and will likely make a costly mistake late in the game to either allow the Panthers to win or at least cover 6 points.

The Panthers of course lost star TE Greg Olsen last week, and they will be without two other back-end receivers as well. Cam Newton ($6,600) will have to make plays on his own and rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey ($7,000) and Devin Funchess ($4,700) to get open against numerous backups on the Falcons. I think McCaffrey explodes this week and Devin Funchess makes the most of his 6’4″ 225lb frame in a hybrid H-back/TE role right in the middle of the field.

Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans

I want absolutely nothing to do with with situation in Tennessee. I think Marcus Mariota is much more injured than Mike Vrabel is letting on and I wouldn’t be surprised if Blaine Gabbert takes the majority of the snaps this week.

The Texans held Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to 27 points last week and almost tied it up at the end of the game despite some very bad play on both sides of the ball. The Patriots were able to contain DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) last week and Deshaun Watson ($6,300) struggled to find other pass catching options against a very beatable secondary. The Titans are also very beatable through the air and guess who’s back for Houston…

throw_here_mr_watson_i_need_you-0

At the surface, Will Fuller ($5,300) is a “big fuckin’ whoop” type of player. But in this offense, he’s a speedy downfield threat that opens everything else up. I expect Deshaun Watson to bounce back from an underwhelming Week 1 to take over this game.

On top of Mariota’s injury, the Titans will be without BOTH starting Tackles, and TE Delanie Walker.

Who’s hungry?

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5)

The Browns forced 6 turnovers last week and came away with a tie. That speaks volumes about this team, whether it be the coaching staff or the on-field talent. Their offense is built for Baker Mayfield, yet they have Tyrod Taylor at the helm. Taylor is all about minimal risk and protecting the football, but that conservative style of football only works with Jalen Hurts at Alabama.

The Saints got embarrassed by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and I bet they come out of the gates hot this week. A fire has been lit under their ass and their offense will hold nothing back. Alvin Kamara ($9,500) will be up against a Browns defense that just allowed James Conner to tally 192 yards from scrimmage. The Saints score a million points at home and the Browns are going to get left behind in the dust.

The Saints got beat deep last week by Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. The Browns don’t really have that kind of vertical threat. Josh Gordon ($5,800) is probably their best downfield option, but he hasn’t been fully integrated into the offense yet. The dinks and dunks to Jarvis Landry ($6,300) and David Njoku ($3,000) will accumulate fantasy points, but not a lot of real life points. I love the Saints here in a bounce back spot.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys

Waiting all day for Sunday Night.

cu_tour_jeff_johnson

BRING BACK THE OLD SNF SONG!

New York Giants. Dallas Cowboys. Carrie Underwood. Sunday Night. These stars align at least once a year. Neither team is particularly good but I do believe that the Giants have a leg up over the Cowboys.

dkg0q_0waaanicm

It boils down to the pass catchers. The Cowboys could not move the ball through the air against a weak Panthers secondary. The Giants are probably a top-10 secondary led by Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins. They’ll be up against the likes of Allen Hurns, Michael Gallup and Tavon Austin. Also, are we sure Dak Prescott is even good? I have my doubts. Losing C Travis Frederick seems catastrophic for the Cowboys as Ezekiel Elliott ($7,600) was bottled up all last week.

The Giants of course have liabilities on the right side of their offensive line and they’ll be tasked with handling DeMarcus Lawrence this week. That means that the Giants will continue their quick hit offense and luckily for them, a totally healthy Odell Beckham Jr ($8,500) is the best slant catcher in the game. The Cowboys secondary continues to be an issue and despite Eli Manning’s limited ability, OBJ, Sterling Shepherd, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley are big enough playmakers to handle Dallas. Hopefully the Giants have a different Punt Returner this week.

 

giphy-downsized-large

There are my 4 picks. I’m on fire, you can’t stop this train. You’re doing yourself a disservice by not taking these picks. Now onto the Survivor Pool.

I took the Baltimore Ravens last week in my Survivor Pool and they trounced the Bills. Nearly half of my pool took the Saints.  This week, the LA Rams are the biggest favorites at -13 against the Cardinals. Then it’s the Saints -9.5 against the Browns, the Chargers -7.5 against the Bills, and the Broncos -6.5 against the Raiders. All four of those picks have their pros and cons. The Rams are the safest bet, but having them on the board later in the season would be very clutch. The Saints just murdered half of America last week. The Chargers are traveling across the country to play in the dreaded 1 PM EST time slot. The Broncos are still led by the streaky Case Keenum.

Safe Picks:

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. New Orleans Saints

Risky Picks:

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Washington Redskins
  3. Denver Broncos

My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers

 

Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

START:

  • Any and every Kansas City Chief and Pittsburgh Steeler. This is the Antonio Brown explosion spot and who better to go shot for shot with him than Tyreek Hill?
  • Business Fridays. Casual Fridays are so out-dated. We stunt on Business Fridays now:dner0b1x0aaoenr.jpg
  • Using a soft tortilla as a plate while eating hard tacos. All the spillage then becomes the final taco.
  • Birds. Not the Eagles, Falcons, Ravens, Cardinals, or Seahawks. Brogan will show you what I mean:

  • Any receiver going up against Richard Sherman. Shoutout Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay.
  • THIS REF:

 

SIT:

  • James Conner’s barber. Business in the front, an accidental sneeze in the middle, Mike Gundy in the back:
    dmqfv6ew0acsdp.jpg
  • The ESPN exec that aired Marshawn Lynch’s high school photo. He may be dead.

dmx_g9tucaelxp_

  • Matt Patricia. It has become known that he keeps a pencil behind his ear despite having a laminated play sheet. I think he should focus on the lead in the game not the lead in the pencil.
  • Any Buffalo Bill. They suuuuuuck!

 

 

Week 2 baby. I Love It.

Wild Card Weekend Picks

What’s up Darters. It’s been awhile. My victory lap(s) finally ended this summer and I have joined what the adults call the “real world.” One time I had an interview for the show, The Real World; but that’s a different story for a different day. The craziest/worst part of pretending to be an adult is having to hide your degeneracies around people that are probably trying their hardest to hide their own vices as well. I made a dark joke about being lucky that I didn’t drive over any bridges on the way to work on a shitty day wayyyyy too early into my employment and I am now 100% pegged as the guy to watch out for by at least a couple people.

I’ve been off my gambling game but have kept my ear to the ground and am ready to come back in, fuck shit up, and leave a winner. I prefer playoff time because you really get to dive into specific matchups and you aren’t overwhelmed by a 14+ game slate. Last year during the Championship Round I hit my infamous 5 team parlay which helped fund half of this year’s shenanigans. But you guys aren’t here to listen about what I’m up to (or are you?), you’re here to make some money. Let’s get it.

 

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

The Titans are much worse than their 9-7 record suggests. I was praying that either the Chargers or Ravens would claim the 5 seed instead of Tennessee. Alas, neither did. The Titans do have one thing going for them:

FINALLY Derrick Henry will be freed from his DeMarco Murray shackles and will be able to ball out for a full game. I drafted Henry in fantasy in like the 11th round and waited and waited and waited and waited and waited….to no avail. Even Sirius Black was like damn dude you waited forever.

After a couple impressive wins at the beginning of the season, the Titans had a ridiculously easy schedule, and still managed to lose to the 49ers and Cardinals down the stretch. Their receivers have been plagued by injuries and their 1st round WR Corey Davis hasn’t really done anything. Delanie Walker is still a mainstay in the offense, despite Marcus Mariota taking a step back this season. Their secondary is on the rise, but they are still vulnerable downfield. Alex Smith doesn’t take deep shots very often, but he does have the best deep threat in the league on his side in Tyreek Hill. There probably isn’t a single human in the NFL that can match Hill step for step, so it’s a matter of time before he breaks one off.

When/if Hill is covered, Travis Kelce has a great matchup this week. If Gronk didn’t exist, Kelce would be one of the biggest names in the NFL. He’s still pretty much a household name. With Hill, Kelce, and rookie RB Kareem Hunt teamed up with a veteran game manager in Alex Smith, there is simply too much offensive firepower for the Titans to be able to contend. Also pencil in Kelce to catch a shovel pass TD.

Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ Los Angeles Rams

With Carson Wentz’s injury, the NFC race is kind of wide open. The Vikings may be the favorites, but I’d put my money on the Saints. That being said, a team like the Falcons can make a serious run themselves. They proved to be a Super Bowl worthy team last year for 3 1/2 quarters, and have nearly the same roster top to bottom this year. Matt Ryan has been off all year, but at any moment he and Julio Jones can click and rack up 200+ yards. The Falcons have an endless supply of skilled pass catchers, and have the best RB duo not named Ingram and Kamara.

The Falcons racked up 39 sacks this season. They’re going to do everything they can to get pressure in Jared Goff’s face and try to force turnovers due to his inexperience. Additional pressure on Goff would force the Rams’ hand into keeping Todd Gurley in the backfield to pick up blitzes and protect Goff. That would be huge for Atlanta. If they can eliminate Gurley for even 10 more plays than usual, that’d force the Rams to move the chains with lesser playmakers in Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, etc. Keanu Neal and Deion Jones will be sitting back ready to pounce.

Despite having Aaron Donald clogging up the middle, the Rams nearly gave up 2,000 yards on the ground this season. Keep Freeman and Coleman away from Donald, and they can get to the second level with relative ease. I like the Falcons straight up; +6 seems crazy.

Buffalo Bills (+8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I like the Jaguars, but 8.5 points is a lot. I think that we’ll get a bit of a defensive slugfest, despite each team having a top RB in the league. Good running games mean that the clock will tick. A game like this could end 17-14 before you know it. As long as Nathan Peterman isn’t on the field, the Bills don’t turn the ball over a lot. Sacksonville has prided themselves on getting to the QB, and Jalen Ramsey solidified himself as one of the best corners in the game. The Bills don’t have a real standout pass catching threat that can give Ramsey any trouble. So basically the Jaguars can pick any receiver on the Bills and eliminate him by having Ramsey cover him. That’ll open the door for LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay. If McCoy can reach 150 total yards from scrimmage, then that’ll be good news for the Bills.

The Jaguars have been plagued by injuries to their wideouts and they’ll now face a Bills secondary that has been surprisingly good. Micah Hyde turned out to be one of the best signings in the league, and Tre’Davious White had a fantastic rookie season. Allen Hurns should be 100%, and he’ll draw the top coverage guys. That means that one of my favorite college players from last year, Dede Westbrook, will have many opportunities to make a difference in this game. I was shocked that he dropped into the 4th round last year. Watching him with Baker Mayfield was fascinating, and I hope he can make some plays for Blake Bortles this weekend.

dede-0

The Bills have been susceptible to the run this year and the Jaguars have one of the biggest and baddest RBs in the league in Leonard Fournette. He’s going to get his, so it’s a matter of whether or not the Bills O comes in to Jacksonville ready to play.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

I mentioned before that the Saints are probably my favorite to come out of the NFC. They finally have something that resembles a defense and they have the steal of the draft in Alvin Kamara. Also, the Saints are a different animal at home in the dome. They score and score, then score some more. Unfortunately for the Panthers, their secondary has been their biggest issue this year, and recent results prove that:

Michael Thomas has been practicing in full and I’m willing to bet that he finds his way into the end zone this week. Ted Ginn Jr is also going to find his way in for 6. The former Panther was Tyreek Hill before he entered the league and he would certainly like a little shot at revenge.

The Panthers do have some studs up front in Luke Keuchly and Charles Johnson, but the lethal combo of Kamara and Mark Ingram has been way too much to handle since the Saints cut ties with Adrian Peterson.

2017-11-19t230014z_1747913760_nocid_rtrmadp_3_nfl-washington-redskins-at-new-orleans-saints

The Saints are gonna go marching on in what I think is going to be a shootout in the Superdome.

 

 

It’s good to be back. Playoff football is the best. If this parlay hits I’ll be one step closer to getting out of this “real world” and back to public degeneracy. Pray for me.

drew-brees-praying

Also, keep your eyes and ears peeled for some news about potential podcasts coming your way. I don’t know who, what, when, where, why, or how, all I do know is that some equipment should be in my possession come Monday. Can’t wait s/o Bart Scott.

By the way here’s an absolute banger that you need to listen to:

NFL Week 10 Picks

giphy

Deliberation, cogitation, rumination. Three words that I looked up that mean thinking deeply about something. Which is exactly what I didn’t do last weekend. I checked out the NFL, NCAAF, and Breeder’s Cup lines and went with the ole gut. And the ole gut did not disappoint. Now it’s time to go back to back like the cover of Lethal Weapon. Or like Jordan ’96-’97.

Continue reading “NFL Week 10 Picks”

NFL Week 5 Picks

Welcome back to everybody’s favorite (semi) weekly gambling post. If you were missing me last week, it’s because I gave myself a 1 week ban for my subpar Week 3 performance. I went 1-3, bringing my season total to 8-8. But let’s not tread on the past. Here’s what I like for Week 5:

Continue reading “NFL Week 5 Picks”

WordPress.com.

Up ↑