Halloweekend was tough. I dressed as Money Manziel for the 5th year in a row and I took it a little too literally.

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Instead of maybe holding back and saving up a little bit, I’m gonna get right back on that horse (Gunnevara) and crawl back inch by inch. Let’s get after it:

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Drew Brees at home. Hammer it hammer it hammer it. The Saints are in a shootout in seemingly every game at home since like 2008. They are now going up against a Buccaneers secondary that gives up 280 yards per game as well as another 111 on the ground. Brees and Michael Thomas are bound to explode, and he’ll be even more open than usual with Ted Ginn Jr taking the top off of the defense. Ginn has stolen the #2 role from Willie Snead/Brandon Coleman and his speed always commands the opposing defense’s respect.

The Saints also have one of the best RB duos in the league in Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. They exceeded expectations so much that they essentially kicked future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson out the door.

And for the first time in forever, the Saints have some pieces that resemble actual solid defenders:

Marshon Lattimore, the 11th overall pick in the 2017 draft, will have his hands full against one of the most skilled and physical receivers in Mike Evans. Unfortunately for Evans, Jameis Winston still won’t be 100% this week.

The trouble with a shoulder injury is that Jameis is one big hit away from re-aggravating it. Also it may be hard for him to throw the ball 40+ times in what looks to be a shootout. That means late game turnovers as Jameis suffers beyond the usual wear and tear. If Doug Martin can run the ball efficiently and limit Jameis’ passing attempts while controlling the time of possession, then the Buccaneers have a chance at winning/covering.

Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

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ALL ABOARD THE BROCKETSHIPPPPP!!! Not really though. Will Brock Osweiler come back to his 2015 form? Time will tell. If Emmanuel Sanders returns, he, Demaryius Thomas, Bennie Fowler, and AJ Derby are solid weapons that can get the job done as long as Brock has a halfway decent game.

The Eagles have been rolling, but they lost Jason Peters two weeks ago and haven’t been able to fill his spot since. They allowed 3 sacks last week against an atrocious 49ers D Line. The Broncos have somebody by the name of Von Miller, who already has 7 sacks this season. The defense as a whole has 17 sacks and 21 tackles for a loss.

The Eagles acquired RB Jay Ajayi last week, but he is expected to only take limited snaps, if any at all. Until he’s a full time RB, the Eagles won’t have a true run game. That means that Carson Wentz will have to rely on his arm to win against one of the best secondaries in the NFL in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. They should gobble up Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Torrey Smith with relative ease. The key on offense for the Eagles of course is TE Zach Ertz. When he and Wentz are rolling, the whole team starts rolling. If the Broncos can find a way to neutralize, or at least hold Ertz to a 5/55/1 line, they have a good chance to cover in a low scoring affair. Also Brock Osweiler needs to not suck. Take this pick with a grain of salt.

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

The Redskins announced that everybody will be out on Sunday:

The Seahawks have won 4 straight including the game of the year last week against the Texans. Russell Wilson threw for 452 yards, and Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham only accounted for 93 of them. He has a full arsenal of weapons and even a healthy Josh Norman won’t be able to handle them. The one knock on the Seahawks has been their lack of a run game. This week, they seem to be planning on giving Eddie Lacy a chance:

They should just run cool shit with JD McKissic but who am I to say. On defense, Earl Thomas is going to be a game time decision. If he can’t go, Vernon Davis suddenly becomes the Redskins’ most dangerous weapon. If all your stock is in a 33 year old TE, your team is in some serious trouble.

I think the Seahawks D has a big game and Doug Baldwin explodes.

Oakland Raiders (-3) @ Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins basically just mailed it in last week, trading Jay Ajayi for future draft picks. Ajayi was their best weapon, and even he couldn’t find the end zone this season. That leaves Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams in their backfield, two unproven but decently skilled RBs. The Dolphins average only 13 points per game and are now relying on a Jay Ajayi-less offense led by paycheck collecting Jay Cutler.

The Raiders stumbled into Buffalo last week during the 1:00 slot, but this is a Sunday Night game. Last time they were on a nationally televised game, Amari Cooper caught 11 balls for 210 yards and 2 TDs in what is the early favorite for upset of the year. I think big play Amari comes back and the Dolphins offense sputters as they try to figure out who is good enough to even handle the ball.

Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ Green Bay Packers

Matthew Stafford just lit up the first ranked secondary of the Pittsburgh Steelers for 423 yards last week on SNF. He now heads into Green Bay to face the 24th ranked secondary over the past 4 weeks. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr are healthy and looked solid last week. TJ Jones has been phenomenal in Kenny Golladay’s absence. Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick haven’t gotten their show on the road yet this season, but they remain a threat nevertheless.

The Packers secondary is not good, and they of course don’t have Aaron Rodgers this season. Brett Hundley has a completion percentage of 52.5 with 1 TD and 4 INTs. If he could throw the ball, you’d call him a dual threat guy, but throw the ball he cannot. The Lions have a top-10 secondary, so you can chalk up another INT or 2.

Get used to seeing this, fellas.

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***CFB Picks***

Penn State @ Michigan State (+9.5)

Auburn @ Texas A&M (+15)

Clemson (-8) @ NC State

LSU @ Alabama OVER 48.5

 

Oh, and Gun Runner is gonna win the Breeder’s Cup. But toss some cash on Gunnevara too, just in case.

 

There you have it folks, NFL, CFB, and Horses. Call me a rogue employee from Twitter because I’m about to shut it down.