The NFL isn’t the NBA. There are 11 players on the field at a time, and 53 on the roster. NBA teams have 5 players on the floor and 14ish on the roster. That means that one individual basketball player has a much higher chance to change the course of a game. If one individual doesn’t do his job, that means that a basketball team is only being 80% efficient on the floor. If one football player doesn’t do his job, the team is still being 91% efficient. Some positions are obviously more important than others (Quarterback), but if you put the world’s best QB behind the world’s worst offensive line he won’t be able to reach his full potential.
The argument that Jets fans have that every win is a giant step in the wrong direction is IDIOTIC. For every top 5 pick that’s a stud, there’s a colossal bust drafted next to him. Jets fans have been clamoring for an 0-16 season to lock up the first overall pick for a bunch of question marks in this year’s upcoming draft. The top two QB prospects, Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold, still haven’t decided if they’re going to declare for the draft or stay in school. So what’s the point of sucking for a pair of QBs that very well might not even be on a draft board until 2019?
I looked at every Quarterback drafted since 2000. The best QB in the draft class was drafted 10th overall or later in at least 12 of those years. That means that historically, there will be a good to great QB available after the teams that are ‘tanking’ make their picks. 5 of these drafts’ best QBs came from the 3rd round or later. I would say that only 5 out of the past 17 drafts had the best Quarterback selected first.
It is wayyyyy too early to tell, but Deshaun Watson was drafted 12th overall in the draft. He just threw for 5 TDs on Sunday Night Football. DeShone Kizer was drafted 52nd overall, and he has shown some potential in his limited playing time for the Browns. Mitchell Trubisky is getting his first start tonight on MNF and Pat Mahomes doesn’t look like he’s going to touch the field this season. But Watson was the 3rd QB off the board and looks like he’s the cream of the crop.
Goff and Wentz went 1 and 2 and they both have looked pretty solid so far this season. One QB has looked better, however, and that is Dak Prescott, who was drafted 135th overall. Jacoby Brissett was also drafted 91st. So the most successful and arguably most skilled QB in this class was drafted 133 spots after the other 2 guys.
Winston and Mariota went 1 and 2. They were also both surefire prospects for the entirety of the college football season. However, Broncos QB Trevor Siemian was drafted 250th. Again, a very serviceable QB that is currently winning games in the NFL was available in the 7th round.
Blake Bortles was drafted 3rd overall. He was just in a QB competition with Chad Henne. Derek Carr was drafted an entire round later at 36th overall. Teddy Bridgewater was also the last pick of the 1st round. Both are miles ahead of Bortles. Even Jimmy G, drafted 62nd overall, is a better QB than Bortles.
EJ Manuel was the first QB drafted at 16. He’s now the Raiders backup after a couple failed stints around the league. This actually was a terrible QB class, but Mike Glennon was available in the 3rd round at 73rd overall.
Andrew Luck went 1st. RGIII went 2nd. Ryan Tannehill went 8th. Brandon Weeden went 22nd. None of whom played last week. Super Bowl Champion Russell Wilson did play, however, and he was drafted 75th. Kirk Cousins didn’t play because he had a bye, but he was drafted 102nd in this draft.
Cam Newton went 1st overall. That was a good pick. A similar QB was drafted 180th overall in Tyrod Taylor. Even Andy Dalton slipped into the 2nd round.
Sam Bradford went 1st overall. The only other QB even worth mentioning was Tim Tebow at 25th. Although Tebow has won more playoff games.
Matthew Stafford went 1st. Mark Sanchez went 5th. Stafford has been solid over his career, while Sanchez not so much. So that’s a 50% success rate for top 5 QBs in this draft.
Matt Ryan went 3rd overall. Joe Flacco went 18th. One of those two won a Super Bowl. The other took part in the worst Super Bowl collapse of all time.
JaMarcus Russell went 1st overall. He is one of the worst busts of all time. No QB in this draft class was any good though in his defense.
Vince Young went 3rd. Matt Leinart went 10th. Jay Cutler is the only active QB left, who went 11th. So again a middle-low tiered team drafted the best QB, not the teams with top-10 picks.
Alex Smith went 1st overall. But somebody named Aaron Rodgers was drafted 24th overall. That means that a playoff caliber team was able to draft the best QB in the game today.
Eli went 1st. Rivers went 4th. Big Ben went 11th. I’d rather Big Ben than Rivers, and probably over Eli as well. So once again, a team outside the top 10 drafted the best QB.
Carson Palmer was drafted 1st overall. Good pick.
David Carr went first. He wasn’t good. The only remaining QB from this class is Josh McCown, who was drafted 81st overall.
Mike Vick went 1st overall. Exactly one round later, Drew Brees was drafted. Vick has the highlights, Brees will have the Hall of Fame plaque.
Chad Pennington was drafted 18th overall. Oh and this guy named Tom Brady was drafted 199th overall.
So, what’s my point? Rooting against the Jets is illogical. There is never a guarantee that the top QB of a class will be the best when it’s all said and done. There is no guarantee that he’ll even be good. Throwing an entire season out the window for 1/53rd of a roster is a terrible idea. The way to build a good team is by treating picks 2-7 with as much importance as #1. Build a strong, deep line. Decide on your defensive scheme and draft players that fit the scheme. Get playmakers and get the ball in their hands. And draft the mid-round QB that maybe was in the wrong system in college. History shows that nearly every draft has at least a starting caliber QB that drops down below the 10th overall pick, and oftentimes even further.
So while the Jets continue to beat the teams that they should be beating, fans should hoot and holler and root for upsets against their tough slate coming up. They have the Patriots x2, the Falcons, the Bucs, the Panthers, the Chiefs, the Broncos and the Saints. The Jets proved that despite their question marks all over the field, they can still show up and beat the lower tiered teams. That is something to build on. Todd Bowles is coaching well, the defense is making big plays, and Josh McCown is exceeding expectations. McCown has shown that the Jets can win with a middle of the road QB. They nearly made the playoffs with Ryan Fitzpatrick two years ago. So why should they throw away a season to draft a QB that might not even be worth a damn? With Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, and Jimmy G set to hit the free agent market after this season, why shouldn’t the Jets try to knock off a couple playoff caliber teams to prove to those three guys that they could really do something special in 2018. Then, the Jets could use their 8-15th pick the address roster spots 2-53. Then, when the 3rd round or so comes along, they can take a flier on a QB. Expectations won’t be crazy high, and he could possibly learn as Kirk’s/Drew’s/Jimmy’s understudy.
TL:DR – Draft Luke Falk: