The moment we’ve all been waiting for is here, folks. For those of you that dealt with my Game of Thrones posts throughout the summer, I’m finally going to #StickToSports and give out my weekly NFL picks to get us all some extra beer money. For those of you that are new to my (kinda) weekly gambling picks, last year I went 35-21-3 against the spread on https://trevozza.wordpress.com, including a massive parlay in the Divisional Round that let me reap the benefits of for months:
So for those of you counting at home, that’s a 64.4% success rate. Say you bet $100 a game, you’d be up $1,400 as well as an additional $300 in pushes. Say you bet just $20 a game; you’d still be up $280 plus another $60. And say you hit a parlay during the Divisional Round…..you’re in some serious business. To quote our friend DJ Khaled, ride with me through the journey of more success.
It’s Week 1 and nobody really knows anything about anyone, but lets get after it anyway:
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (-8) (Now -9)
You’re gonna try to tell me that the Pats don’t win by at least a dozen on their Banner Night following the most improbable comeback in Super Bowl history? The Patriots spent the past month remodeling the stadium to find room to hang their 5th banner.
The loss of Julian Edelman is going to be a minor bump in the road as the Patriots are without a doubt the deepest offensive (and arguably one of the deepest defensive) team put together in recent memory. Tom Brady doesn’t have a suspension looming over his head, Jimmy G is a more than suitable backup QB that would start on at least 1/3 of all NFL teams, and they just traded 3rd stringer Jacoby Brissett for deep threat Phillip Dorsett. They have so many offensive weapons that it’s nearly impossible to predict who will be the biggest threat any given week. They have Dion Lewis, James White, Mike Gillislee, and Rex Burkhead at RB, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Phillip Dorsett, and Malcolm Mitchell at WR, as well as Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen at TE. Pick your fucking poison with this team.
For the Chiefs, they’ll have 3rd round pick Kareem Hunt starting at RB with Spencer Ware suffering a season ending injury. They also have to replace Jeremy Maclin’s production with Tyreek Hill and Chris Conley. Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ most consistent threat, so Bill Belichick will probably all but eliminate him from the game and force Alex Smith to score points with lesser players.
The Chiefs have a top-10 defense, but they don’t have the depth to deal with the relentless attack that the Patriots will put on. Factor in the 5th banner being raised with the idea of a 19-0 season being tossed around, and this game could be over before it even starts.
New York Jets (+9.5) @ Buffalo Bills UNDER 40
I am going to take the under in every Jets game until they start putting the number ridiculously low. They have without question the worst offense in the NFL, but have a very respectable defense with Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson leading the charge on their D Line.
This is a classic tank-off between two teams that aren’t even attempting to hide their intentions. The Bills have sold off several players including Sammy Watkins for future draft picks. Then, Anquan Boldin decided to retire just 10 days after deciding to unretire. Tyrod Taylor finally passed concussion protocol on Tuesday, so he has less than five days to prepare for a showdown with new receivers in Jordan Matthews and rookie Zay Jones. With the Bills cutting backup RB Jonathan Williams, LeSean McCoy seems to be the biggest player of the game. He’ll be up against a stingy run defense, but he’ll be able to get open in passing downs against the inexperienced Jets LBs.
The Jets QB situation is a disaster and it certainly doesn’t help that Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and Quincy Enunwa are all either off the roster or injured this season. I like the Jets +9.5 because there literally might be less than 9 total points scored in this game. There simply won’t be enough points scored for the Jets to lose by more than 9.
Arizona Cardinals (-2) @ Detroit Lions
I’m putting my eggs back in the Carson Palmer basket this year. I think that he bounces back and has a serviceable year in Arizona while their staunch defense finally sets the tone. Also lets not forget that David Johnson is a bonafide star and could surpass 2,500 yards from scrimmage this season. Against the Lions’ porous defense, DJ2K might bang out a quick 250.
The Cardinals have studs at all levels of their defense. Robert Nkemdiche leads the D Line. Chandler Jones and Markus Golden are edge rushers that will wreak havoc. And how could we ever forget about Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu making plays all over the field.
Here’s the biggest matchup of the game:
If (and when) Peterson keeps Golden Tate under wraps, then $135,000,000 QB Matthew Stafford will have to win the game passing to Marvin Jones Jr, Eric Ebron, and Theo Riddick out of the backfield. Mathieu is good enough to seemingly eliminate one of those guys as well.
For the Lions, they will have RB1 Ameer Abdullah back after he suffered a season ending achilles injury in Week 2 last year. His health will dictate how well the Lions can perform this year, as he is by far the best RB between the tackles, compared to Theo Riddick who is/should be a strictly receiving RB.
Regardless of Abdullah’s health, however, I think the Cardinals come in and win with a statement victory that tells the league that their defense ain’t nothing to fuck with.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) @ Green Bay Packers
My preseason pick for MVP this season is Russell Wilson. Dude’s finally having sex again and has got his swagger back.
Wilson is 100% healthy after being slowed down with a knee injury last year. Tyler Lockett is 100% healthy as well, and with Jermaine Kearse being traded to the Jets, he and Paul Richardson will be ready to make huge plays alongside Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. Once they resolve their clusterfuck at RB with Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, CJ Prosise, and Chris Carson, the Seattle offense will be damn near unstoppable.
Lets not forget that the Seahawks defense is absurd this year as well. The Legion of Boom will be back in action with Jeremy Lane filling in at the other CB spot. I think that Sheldon Richardson will be HUGE this year in a change of scenery on a competitive team. He, Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, and Jarran Reed make up one of the most formidable defensive lines in the NFL.
Last year, these teams squared off and the Packers won 38-10. Russell Wilson somehow threw FIVE INTs against the atrocious Packers secondary. I’m going to chalk that game up as a crazy outlier and hope that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t make me eat my words come Sunday.
Rodgers needs to pick apart the star studded Seattle defense in order to keep up with the offensive onslaught that the Seahawks will take part of on Sunday. The Packers signed CB Davon House and drafted CB Kevin King in the 2nd round, but they may only be minor improvements to the 19th ranked secondary of last year according to Pro Football Focus.
The Packers have the weapons on offense in Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett, and Ty Montgomery, but can they keep up with the Seahawks? I think not.
It just came to my attention that the Seahawks unveiled this new logo and suddenly I am nervous as can be:
Carolina Panthers (-5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
Brian Hoyer is the Quarterback of the 49ers with Carlos Hyde as their only noteworthy RB and Pierre Garcon as their only noteworthy pass catcher. They are not good, nor will they be good. They’ll be in the tank race right alongside the Jets and Bills.
These two teams met last year in Week 2 and Cam Newton threw for 4 TDs en route to a 46-27 victory. I think that this will be a huge comeback season for Cam and he’ll reenter the MVP conversation at the end of the year. With draft picks Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel joining Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess, and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers suddenly have an abundance of playmakers to compliment probably the best dual threat QB in the game. Luke Keuchly of course will be back on defense leading one of the more underrated units in the NFL. I’m not saying this is going to be a bloodbath, but I’m not not saying that.
So there you have it. Six picks if you count the Jets-Bills Under. I’m fully torqued and read to rock, and I hope you are as well. Until next week, call me Huell from Breaking Bad because I’m gonna be laying on a bed of money.
P.S. I wouldn’t advise doing this but I bought a bunch of points on a bunch of favorites and parlayed that shit. Crazier things have happened.